Why does Padmé Amidala think Count Dooku is after her?

Question

At the beginning of Episode II, Padmé, who is now a senator, is the target of an attack. An explosion occurs that results in the death of her decoy and servant Cordé.

She then is convinced that Count Dooku (head of the Trade Federation) is at the origin of this attack.

But I don't understand why she thinks that.

Padmé is a pacifist.  She's on Coruscant to vote against the creation of an army that would subdue the Trade Federation. So as far as she knows, she's making Dooku a favor! Dooku should like her and not want to kill her at all.

(Of course Dooku has ulterior motive, but Padmé doesn't know that.)

What did I miss?

Answer 1

According to the script, it's basically a gut feeling.

PADMÉ
Thank you, Master Yoda. Do you have any idea who was behind the attack?

MACE WINDU
Our intelligence points to disgruntled spice miners, on the moons of Naboo.

PADMÉ
I don't wish to disagree but Ithink that Count Dooku was behind it.

There is a stir of surprise.

MACE WINDU
You know, M'Lady, Count Dooku was once a Jedi. He wouldn't assassinate anyone, it is not in his character.

KI-ADI-MUNDI
He is a political idealist, not a murderer.

YODA
In dark times nothing is what it appears to be, but the fact remains Senator, in grave danger you are.

PALPATINE gets up, walks to the window, and looks out at the vast city.

PALPATINE
Count Dooku has always avoided any kind of conflict. It appears he has no desire to start a war. Why would he kill you? To what end?

PADMÉ
I don't know, but everything in my being tells me he was behind it...

After gazing out of the window for several moments Palpatine turns to Mace.

Realistically speaking though, The Republic is in a conflict with the Trade Separatists, and she, herself, has already been a target of the Separatists. With Dooku leading the opposition who she believes is poised for war, it's not a huge stretch to believe that they may have something to do with the attempt on her life.

There have also been theories in the past, with no real hard evidence (especially in the Disney Canon) that Padme has some amount of Force sensitivity, which might provide her at least a little more insight.

Answer 2

I think this is due to a rushed script. I've read before (no confirmation it's true though sorry) that after The Phantom Menace Lucas did a huge revamp of the script and that Dooku might not have ever been part of the original plan. So it very well could have been the only way the writers could introduce Dooku into the story with the time they had since there was nothing in TPM to set that up.

As for how we could try to make it make sense story wise, I like the 2 proposed ideas, that Padme may be slightly force sensitive. Perhaps Palpatine knew that and this is why he chose her for Anakin to fall in love with. This way their children might become even more powerful (which they did).

Or Palpatine simply manipulated her into having that idea so that she would become scared and thus stop being a pacifist.

Answer 3

This is not based on hard evidence, but entirely circumstantial, but my guess would be that Chancellor Palpatine (Darth Sidious) planted the idea in her head.

Obviously not directly, as she was the one telling him of her suspicions, but he was manipulative and secretive enough to manufacture a situation in which someone could have suggested the possibility to her, or created a sequence of events to make her believe she came up with the idea herself.

This entirely fits with his modus operandi, as he regularly uses this type of manipulation to control people without their knowledge.

It also seems that he had the most to gain from Padmé thinking that it was the Trade Federation targeting her. Trying to convince her that the Trade Federation was still a danger would be the best way to encourage her to support an army of the republic, which was part of his end-game.

He needed to garner support for the senate to approve such an army, and convincing such an ardent opposer to this idea to switch sides would have probably caused a great deal many more senators to approve this decision as well.