According to Hermann in Pacific Rim, the Kaiju frequency can almost exactly be modeled with the following:

In the beginning the Kaiju attacks was spaced by twenty-four weeks, then twelve, then six, then every two weeks. The last one in Sydney…was a week. In four days, we could be seeing the Kaiju every eight hours until they are coming every four minutes.

This turns out to be fantastically correct, but was it ever explained why that was the Kaiju followed such a strict model?

  • Commenting because it's been awhile since I watched the movie. But wasn't it because the aliens sending the Kaiju were leading up to a (re)invasion? The frequency was increasing as their invasion date got closer because they wanted to make sure we were in no shape to fight?
    – Alarion
    May 6, 2016 at 5:35
  • Likewise, been a while since I watched this, but wasn't there a plot point about the the breach becoming more stable over time (which is what I assumed lead to the increasing frequency of kaiju)?
    – user22478
    May 6, 2016 at 9:46
  • 3
    These comments explain why (as the title asks) the frequency of attacks increases, but not why (as the body asks) it specifically doubles. Why not tripling? Or increasing by a factor of 2.31? May 6, 2016 at 10:37

1 Answer 1


Hermann Gottlieb's math/prediction was either flat out wrong, or the film makers ignored it, as the Kaiju did not actually follow the progression as laid out.

According to the analysis on this Discover magazine blog, if the movie had followed Hermann's predictions, the Kaiju should have won easily. The predicted curve should look like this:

enter image description here

With a staggering number coming through towards the end. However, in actuality the attacks appear much differently (See chart below)

Note: The article is a summation/collation of information from other websites as well, with relevant links. The relevant text before the below image of calculated frequency (as opposed to predicted) is theoretically straight from canon:

At least the novelization and official canon material of Pacific Rim are consistent in their disregard for their own mathematics. In an analysis of kaiju attack frequency over at Nerdometrics, the author catalogued all explicitly stated kaiju attacks and the time between them. He was expecting to find something similar to what I calculated—a simple and elegant exponential curve. Instead, he found this:

enter image description here

  • The first graph title is misleading. It says "frequency", but shows time between attacks. The frequency gets higher, not lower. Nov 15, 2017 at 14:46
  • 1
    I'm not sure if this answers the question. Ok, so the math was wrong or ignored, but assuming it were right, was it ever mentioned what could have been the reason for it?
    – eis
    Mar 19, 2018 at 20:36

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