I read this story less than a year ago and it was online. I think I read it shortly after it was written. I'm almost certain it's from 2010 or later. It started with a super-intelligent AI waking up. The AI immediately decided that it was unlikely that it just happened to be the first super-intelligence in the universe, and if some other AI had a head start, it was vanishingly unlikely that our AI would be able to outcompete the older one. So the AI that just woke up simulates the hypothetical older AI in order to negotiate terms of surrender.
Can anybody tell me the title and author?