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From Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire:

“I have my reasons for using the boy, as I have already explained to you, and I will use no other. I have waited thirteen years. A few more months will make no difference. As for the protection surrounding the boy, I believe my plan will be effective. All that is needed is a little courage from you, Wormtail — courage you will find, unless you wish to feel the full extent of Lord Voldemort’s wrath —”

Was Voldemort’s plan always to wait for the final trial of the Triwizard Tournament? It seems rather contrived and dependent on good luck. (See here and here.) Wouldn't it have been easier for Voldemort to merely ask Crouch/Moody to abduct Harry at some point? It seems more likely to me that Voldemort's plan was merely to get Moody as a teacher, and then to let Moody wing it from there.

Is there any canon evidence whether Voldemort's scheme was micromanaged and planned from the beginning, or was the third cup Portkey merely decided on later on, when Moody realized Dumbledore was watching him too closely to disallow an easier alternative?

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    As to too complicated: From HPMOR: "Moody had once seen an addicted Dark Wizard go to ridiculous lengths to get a victim to lay hands on a certain exact portkey, instead of just having someone toss the target a trapped Knut on their next visit to town; [...] the addict had gone to the further effort to lay a second Portus, on the same portkey, which had, on a second touch, transported the victim back to safety. [...] Moody could not imagine what could have possibly been going through the man's mind at the time he had cast the second Portus." – K-H-W May 22 '18 at 13:55
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Yes, it was always the Dark Lord’s plan to use the Triwizard Cup.

When the Dark Lord first goes to Barty Crouch Jr. he tells him that he’d want to place a faithful servant at Hogwarts, who’d make sure Harry won the Tournament and turn the Cup into a Portkey.

“And what did Lord Voldemort ask you to do?’ said Dumbledore.

‘He asked me whether I was ready to risk everything for him. I was ready. It was my dream, my greatest ambition, to serve him, to prove myself to him. He told me he needed to place a faithful servant at Hogwarts. A servant who would guide Harry Potter through the Triwizard Tournament without appearing to do so. A servant who would watch over Harry Potter. Ensure he reached the Triwizard Cup. Turn the Cup into a Portkey, which would take the first person to touch it to my master. But first –”
- Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, Chapter 35 (Veritaserum)

The Dark Lord told him this plan upon arriving to his house, so that was always the plan in place.

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