Some eighteen months or so before Apollo 11, Larry Niven wrote a story in which he predicted that Neil Armstrong would be selected by NASA to be the first man on the moon.
He also, some years after the event, wrote an essay describing the reasoning by which he reached that conclusion.
In the essay Niven describes how he analyzed the character attributes, in particular of Glenn and Shepard, that NASA looked for in its pioneers, and applied that process to the Apollo candidates to attempt a duplication of their reasoning.
I was flabbergasted when I first read the story in the early-mid 1970's and re-checked the copyright date, and then the printing date, before realizing that it was not a retroactive edit. Then several years later again I came across the explanatory essay.
Can anyone tell me the name of the first story and/or the subsequent essay?
To be clear - there are two works, a story/novel and a subsequent essay.
The initial story/novel makes a passing reference to Armstrong - I forget just why. Only several years later, in the 1970's or possibly 1980's, does Niven write the essay explaining how he made the determination and prediction.
As I cannot remember the works, it is of course possible that I have misremembered the author - but I believe not.