I have a vivid memory of something similar to Psychohistory being used in either a TV show or movie (most likely TV). Earth is taken over by a totalitarian government (or alien), and two characters are debating whether to fight it or not. They had mathematical predictions that if they fought now they would lose anyway, and sometime in the future (200 years?) a resistance would form on Mars and free everyone. They debated whether or not fighting back now was worth it given that they would undoubtedly lose and people would die in vain.
I thought it an episode of Babylon 5 but I just watched it all again and couldn't find it. Does anybody else remember this?
Edit: Just to note, though I always appreciate recommendations, I'm looking for a specific piece of sci-fi.