Could Khal Drogo's Khalasar really have defeated the Iron Throne?

Question

I always found it surprising how scared everyone was about Daenerys' marriage to Khal Drogo and the possibility of the Dothraki horde crossing the Narrow Sea. In Season 1 Episode 5, Robert Baratheon specifically states that if they did cross the sea, they wouldn't be able to stop them. I don't understand this.

He would have all of Westeros behind him. The Knights of Westeros are extremely skilled, trained from an early age in swordsmanship. Their weapons are almost certainly of a higher quality, and they use tactics and strategy (I don't think it's ever stated what kind of battle formations the Dohtraki use). Furthermore, they wear armor, and it has been stated that the Dothrarki's Arakhs wouldn't be able to pierce Westerosi armor (although I don't know if they were talking about plate or mail).

Could the Seven Kingdoms really have lost against Khal Drogo's 40,000 men?

Answer 1

I think there's two separate questions here: First, could Khal Drogo's khalasar have swept the Seven Kingdoms by themselves?

When Dany poses this very question to Ser Jorah, he seems convinced that they would win in open battle. (I'll be relying on the books for most of my analysis, but it should apply equally to the show).

They are better riders than any knight, utterly fearless, and their bows outrange ours. In the Seven Kingdoms, most archers fight on foot, from behind a shieldwall or a barricade of sharpened stakes. The Dothraki fire from horseback, charging or retreating, it makes no matter, they are full as deadly... and there are so many of them, my lady. Your lord husband alone counts forty thousand mounted warriors in his khalasar... Your brother Rhaegar brought as many men to the Trident, but of that number, no more than a tenth were knights. The rest were archers, freeriders, and foot soldiers armed with spears and pikes. When Rhaegar fell, many threw down their weapons and fled the field. How long do you imagine such a rabble would stand against the charge of forty thousand screamers howling for blood? How well would boiled leather jerkins and mailed shirts protect them when the arrows fall like rain?” (GoT, Daenerys IV)

The problem is, as Ser Jorah notes, that the Dothraki have no experience or skill with siegecraft.

Mind you, Princess, if the lords of the Seven Kingdoms have the wit the gods gave a goose, it will never come to that. The riders have no taste for siegecraft. I doubt they could take even the weakest castle in the Seven Kingdoms, but if Robert Baratheon were fool enough to give them battle...” (GoT, Daenerys IV)

And as for that question, he thinks its likely that while Robert was fool enough to meet them in open battle, his advisors were not.

He is a strong man, brave... and rash enough to meet a Dothraki horde in the open field. But the men around him, well, their pipers play a different tune. His brother Stannis, Lord Tywin Lannister, Eddard Stark... (GoT, Daenerys IV)

So as to whether or not the Dothraki could have taken the Seven Kingdoms by themselves, I think it's debatable, but I'm leaning towards no. So long as someone with any sense in them is behind the Iron Throne, it would be child's play to starve out 40,000 men with no knowledge of the surroundings and therefore limited foraging abilities. At the very least, the Dothraki would have been unable to create a naval blockade, meaning key locations like Dragonstone, Storm's End. and King's Landings would have been well-provisioned throughout the war.

But it's worth noting that in addition to the khalasar, Khal Drogo would likely have had significant allies that would have added to his chances of victory. (I leave the dragons out of this on the fair assumption that they would have never hatched without Drogo's death.)

Viserys seems convinced that some in the realm would rise for him, so much so that he didn't even think he needed the entire khalasar.

“We won’t need his whole khalasar, “ Viserys said. His fingers toyed with the hilt of his borrowed blade, though Dany knew he had never used a sword in earnest. “Ten thousand, that would be enough, I could sweep the Seven Kingdoms with ten thousand Dothraki screamers. The realm will rise for its rightful king. Tyrell, Redwyne, Darry, Greyjoy, they have no more love for the Usurper than I do. The Dornishmen burn to avenge Elia and her children. And the smallfolk will be with us. They cry out for their king.” He looked at Illyrio anxiously. “They do, don’t they?” (GoT, Daenerys I)

Now obviously, Viserys is pretty delusional about how anxious the realm is for his return. But Robert also tells Eddard that if Viserys returned, Targeryen loyalists would join him:

"There are still those in the Seven Kingdoms who call me Usurper. Do you forget how many houses fought for Targaryen in the war? They bide their time for now, but give them half a chance, they will murder me in my bed, and my sons with me. If the beggar king crosses with a Dothraki horde at his back, the traitors will join him.” (GoT, Eddard II)

Again, this might just be King Robert being paranoid and his legendary hatred of the Targs. But we see some indications in later books that both men are right. To begin with, three of the houses that Viserys names rise against Robert's "son" Joffrey-- the Tyrells with Renly, the Darrys with Robb Stark, and the Greyjoys in their own rebellion-- and the fourth, the Redwynes, would have if the Lannisters weren't keeping their twin sons hostage.

I think Viserys was counting on Tyrell support because they were the last major house to turn against Aerys, but it's possible they would have joined out of pure ambition. The Tyrells are shown to basically switch sides to whoever looks like they have the greatest chance of victory, switching from Aerys to Robert to Renly to Joffrey. If the Tyrells ever decided that Drogo and the Targaryens had a better chance, they'd probably turn their cloaks and bring the most populous of the Seven Kingdoms with them.

A Feast of Crows reveals that Viserys was right on the nose on two counts. First, Jaime reveals in a flashback that he and Tyrion found hidden dragon banners while staying at Castle Darry, indicating that they are still Targeryen loyalists. But more importantly, it's revealed that:

Dorne has signed a secret pact to support Viserys and Daenerys when they invade Westeros, and Prince Doran has been plotting the overthrow of the Baratheons and Lannisters for over a decade.

And finally, it's worth noting a notable source of support that even Viserys didn't know he had: the Golden Company.

“Which plan?” said Tristan Rivers. “The fat man’s plan? The one that changes every time the moon turns? First, Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back..." (DwD, The Lost Lord)

For those who haven't read the books, the Golden Company is an elite mercenary group operating in Essos. It's primarily composed of exiled Westerosi, has 10,000 men in the company, many of them knights, and even have war elephants. They are very skilled at siegecraft, taking several castles with ease in the later chapters of A Dance with Dragons. One of the Winds of Winter sample chapters reveal:

They have taken over the famously impregnable Storm's End.

So I guess if your question is could Khal Drogo have taken the Iron Throne at all, rather than whether or not he could have done it alone, I think the answer is clearly yes. With the combination of his thousands of Dothraki screamers, the Golden Company, a few ragtag Targeryen loyalists, possibly the Tyrells...

...and definitely the Dornish.

Like all what if? scenarios, nothing is 100% certain. Robb Stark and Renly Baratheron were both major players who were burned because of major unforeseen circumstances. In particular, Khal Drogo and Viserys are both wild cards. I can see either one of them acting in a way that would alienate their possible Westerosi allies. But I think they had a real shot at victory.

Answer 2

Let's look at the situation together.

In the west you have a medieval society. The moment someone important hears that a village is attacked it is most likely too late. The armies are slow but strong and well armored.

On the other side, you have nomad people. They come into a village and a few minutes later it is burnt down. The armies are fast, weakly armored but still strong.

Somehow this sounds very familiar...

Ohh yeah, right, in the past, there were Huns and Mongols. They attacked Central European villages and cities with fast attacks. So fast, that the knights were either too late or they were killed because they had no time to put their armor on.

So, it may seem that the Westerosi knights are in advantage but their slow movement is a much bigger hindrance than you think.

Answer 3

According to Viserys (who is admittedly an idiot) in A Game of Thrones:

“We won’t need his whole khalasar,” Viserys said. His fingers toyed with the hilt of his borrowed blade, though Dany knew he had never used a sword in earnest. “Ten thousand, that would be enough, I could sweep the Seven Kingdoms with ten thousand Dothraki screamers. The realm will rise for its rightful king. Tyrell, Redwyne, Darry, Greyjoy, they have no more love for the Usurper than I do. The Dornishmen burn to avenge Elia and her children. And the smallfolk will be with us. They cry out for their king.”

Dany then has a conversation on the same subject with Jorah, who is not an idiot (except perhaps where women are concerned):

“Could the Dothraki truly conquer the Seven Kingdoms?”

Ser Jorah’s face grew thoughtful as their horses trod together down the godsway. “When I first went into exile, I looked at the Dothraki and saw half-naked barbarians, as wild as their horses. If you had asked me then, Princess, I should have told you that a thousand good knights would have no trouble putting to flight a hundred times as many Dothraki.”

“But if I asked you now?”

“Now,” the knight said, “I am less certain. They are better riders than any knight, utterly fearless, and their bows outrange ours. In the Seven Kingdoms, most archers fight on foot, from behind a shieldwall or a barricade of sharpened stakes. The Dothraki fire from horseback, charging or retreating, it makes no matter, they are full as deadly . . . and there are so many of them, my lady. Your lord husband alone counts forty thousand mounted warriors in his khalasar.”

“Is that truly so many?”

“Your brother Rhaegar brought as many men to the Trident,” Ser Jorah admitted, “but of that number, no more than a tenth were knights. The rest were archers, freeriders, and foot soldiers armed with spears and pikes. When Rhaegar fell, many threw down their weapons and fled the field. How long do you imagine such a rabble would stand against the charge of forty thousand screamers howling for blood? How well would boiled leather jerkins and mailed shirts protect them when the arrows fall like rain?”

“Not long,” she said, “not well.”

He nodded. “Mind you, Princess, if the lords of the Seven Kingdoms have the wit the gods gave a goose, it will never come to that. The riders have no taste for siegecraft. I doubt they could take even the weakest castle in the Seven Kingdoms, but if Robert Baratheon were fool enough to give them battle . . . ”

So the answer appears to be that the Dothraki can win on a battlefield, but not in a siege.

Answer 4

Dothraki would get slaughtered by Westerosi.

I will refer to the Mongols here, as it were Mongols which invaded Europe in 13th century, not Huns (despite what Fakjbf states).

Mongols first time invaded Hungary in 13th century, not 12th century. The only battle fought in Hungary then was Battle of Mohi, in 1241. There, Hungarians were defeated, as were Poles to the north.

But Mongols invaded Hungary again in 1285. This time, situation was completely different: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Mongol_invasion_of_Hungary

In the winter of 1285, Mongol armies invaded Hungary for a second time. ... Local Hungarian forces fought the Mongols in many defensive battles, for which the king had promoted several lesser officials who had distinguished themselves, including Amade Aba, George Baksa, and Peter of Sáros.[38] One such battle took place near the castle of Turusko (Trascau), where the Mongols suffered a sharp defeat with heavy casualties, including 1,000 taken prisoner.[39] Talabuga's weakened army was ultimately defeated[40] when met head-on in battle by the hastily assembled royal army of Ladislaus IV, in the hills of western Transylvania.[41] The army had benefited from the reforms and had a higher proportion of knights than the army the Mongols had defeated a few decades earlier at Mohi.

After the defeat, Talabuga ordered a retreat from Hungary, but his army was ambushed on the return by the Székely people, who fought as light cavalry. By the time he made it back to friendly territory, his army had effectively ceased to exist, with the majority of the soldiers he brought dying in the failed raid.[42] By the hyperbole of one chronicler, Talabuga arrived back in Ruthenia with only his wife and one horse. Once he finally reached Volynia, his starving soldiers plundered the towns of his allies and vassals.[43]

Transylvania and the Hungarian Plains Nogai stayed in Transylvania until the spring of 1286. Here he plundered some towns and villages, such as Szászrégen (Reghin), Brassó (Braşov) and Beszterce (Bistrița). He also managed to destroy a few forts and walled towns. However, like Talabuga, he failed to take any major fortifications, with the exception of the Saxon castle of Ban Mikod in the Aranyos Valley, the former royal stronghold of Torda (today Turda, Romania).[44][45] After the defeat of Talabuga's main column, King Ladislaus IV led an expedition to expel Nogai's forces from Transylvania. His army arrived too late to make a significant difference, as Nogai's forces had already suffered a serious defeat at the hands of local Hungarian troops- mostly the Saxons, Vlachs, and Székelys, commanded by Voivode Roland Borsa.[46] Ladislaus settled for harassing their withdrawal. ... No major invasion of Hungary would be launched after the failure of the campaign of 1285, though small raids from the Golden Horde were frequent well into the 14th century. Less than two years later, the Third Mongol invasion of Poland occurred. This invasion was also repulsed, with the Poles using a similar strategy to the Hungarians in 1285. They were aided by a Hungarian force under George Baksa (also known as George of Sóvár).[47] It was probably in reprisal for this event that in late 1288, a Mongol force launched an attack on the Szepes (Spiš) region, albeit on a small scale. They were repelled, with George again distinguishing himself.[48]

Unlike Dothraki, Mongols had large numbers of heavy cavalry and were capable of military engineering, such as building siege engines and pontoon bridges. None of these are in evidence with Dothraki.

EDIT: Further, the forces Dothraki are facing are significantly different from ones Mongols were facing in their first invasions.

1. Mongols ran over states which were mainly situated on flat terrain and had few major fortifications. Hungarians failed to block the mountain passes. But when Mongol force entered southern Croatia (then part of Hungary), they were stymied by a) mountainous terrain, b) fortifications, c) Croatian naval strength. Westeros has massive fortifications (unrealistically so), and a lot of terrain chokepoints in some parts (Riverlands, Dorne, North).
2. Hungarians at Mohi displayed clear military incompetence. They had no guards, tents were situated way too close to each other, and many nobles wanted the king to lose the battle.
3. Mongols were not capable of taking well-fortified cities - but these were few and far between during their first invasion. When they attacked fortress of Klis, they were beaten back - badly. After that Mongols came under Trogir, only to discover that horses cannot walk on water. When they turned back - there was not enough pasture in Dalmatia for horses - they had trouble getting out of Dalmatia, as many of mountain passes were blocked. They tried to attack island of Rab, where Bela was, but Mongol rafts proved no match for actual warships. Due to this experience, Bela IV ordered all major cities to be fortified.

Westeros has literally none of disadvantages that Hungary had in 1241.

1. Hungary was flat, with few fortifications. Westerosi fortifications are ridiculously massive by historical standards, and much of the country is either a) mountains (Vale, Dorne) b) desert (Dorne) c) bordered by mountains (Westerlands, parts of Riverlands
2. Hungary was disunited. OK, Westeros itself is not exactly the paragon of unity, but it is still far more united than Hungary.
3. Westeros has much better military technology than Hungary did: crossbows and pavises will make most difference against mobile horse archers, but plate armour (though not as widespread as one could believe from watching the show) and other bits of technology will also matter. Westerosi forces generally display much better tactics than Hungarians did at Mohi.

Answer 5

I would say the first quote Mike Scott supplied is the real reason Robert was afraid. He knew that some Houses would see a Targaryen as the rightful successor to Aerys and form a temporary alliance with the Dothraki.

I believe the Dothraki weren't a threat in themselves, it's the civil war they would have started that made Robert and his small council uneasy.

Answer 6

There are detailed comments here, which is great, but the answer can be found in ASOS in a single chapter. Jorah tells Dany about the Three Thousand Unsullied as he recommends she sail to Astapor. The Three Thousand defeated a Dothraki horde simply by maintaining discipline. While no Westerosi fighting force has the discipline of a team of Unsullied, and no Westerosi calvary force would stand a chance against the superior riders of the Dothraki, contingents of foot lance, particularly ones supported by archers, would likely defeat them.

The Dothraki would make excellent guerilla fighters, like Tyrion's mountain men, Dornish snakes and Beric's Brotherhood, and fantastic demoralisers, like Vargo's Brave Companions. But they would seize no castles and win no thrones.

Answer 7

George R.R. Martin has said that the Dothraki are based on the Mongols and Huns, so references to them are sound. Also, 40,000 warriors is a lot, Ser Jorah said that Robert had about that many when he fought on the trident against Rhaegar. It is true that in close combat a knight's armor would be a HUGE advantage, Ser Jorah proved that when he had to fight Drogo's bloodrider Qotho. However, all Dothraki warriors are mounted and as skilled as knights with a sword, while the vast majority of Westerosi armies are made up of unarmored peasant foot soldiers. More to the point, Westerosi armies are forced to stay in lines on roads because of their wagons. The Dothraki could attack them on their unprotected sides. Even in fields where the Westerosi could spread out, there would be very little close combat. The Dothraki would just ride around them firing off arrows. It's also worth noting that Dothraki have a meritocracy, whereas Westerosi leaders are chosen by nepotism. You should watch the episode again because Robert actually cites a reason for his pessimism, and to my knowledge no one has mentioned it yet. He says that Dany's army would be united, behind a single leader with a single goal, as his was in the rebellion. But the Westerosi army would really be hundreds of tiny armies, with hundreds of leaders, with hundreds of goals. He says that it doesn't matter that his would be the bigger, more disciplined army, for it would also be an unstable army, easily fractured.

Answer 8

There is not even a debate. Dothraki would be only arrow fodder, and when they meet the knights in battle, armour makes a huge difference.

• the Dothraki doesnt know the land of Westeros, their outriders would get slaughtered (look what the Blackfish done to Lannister outriders who knew all the land).
• Dothraki can't ride day and night they need to make camp somewhere and without outriders they can be destroyed in one night, arrows with fire, or slaughtered in their sleep.
• Westerosi have spies everywhere, they would know about their sail 1 week in advance, and send the fleet easily to drown them.
• and there is again the tactics, Westerosi are war-battle experience, while the Dothraki just charge at the enemy fearless.
• number: at the start of the war of 5 kings, Robb Stark has around 30.000 when they unite with the Riverlords, Tywin has around 40.000 men, Renly said he has 100.000 men in his march, the Vale I think it has 10.000 knights if I remember correctly. And then there is Stannis's army, the Ironborn, Dorne...
• the final argument is that no house will ever join the Dothraki even if they were led by a Targeryan, they got a very bad reputation in Westeros: savages, murderers, rapists, etc.

Answer 9

Depending on when they attacked (and presumably they would be influenced to attack at the right time) a light breeze could have defeated the Westerosi.

The plan was never for a pitched battle against the entire might of the seven kingdoms.

Viserys thought that his arrival would inspire several lords to join him (Dorne) or more realistically stay neutral (Greyjoys).

Varys planned to destabilise the country sufficiently before the invasion such that many regions would have lost soldiers, or be unwilling to trust each other.

Answer 10

I think for this answer, we just need to look at the Huns. The Dothraki are obviously the ASoIaF equivalent of the Huns, nomadic tribespeople who pillage and destroy their way across the continent with an army composed almost entirely of highly skilled cavalry that were also skilled horse archers, known for their ferocity and bloodthirstiness. Army after army fell before the Huns because they simply couldn't adapt to the totally different style of warfare they brought. They were used to fighting a huge slow moving army dependent on supply trains that would fight in mostly hand to hand combat. The Huns lived off of the land, were incredibly mobile, used guerrilla tactics to harass enemy forces, and when they finally did fight they did so by charging and pulling back repeatedly while constantly firing arrows. By the time they made any full charges the enemy were weakened, exhausted, and ready to break. As Ser Jorah pointed out, open battle would be suicide. So let's assume the Westerosi do the sensible thing and simply hide in their castles. They leave the entire countryside open to be pillaged and burned. The Huns lived off the land, they brought their herds with them and foraged whatever they could find. The only places they would have trouble in would be Dorne and the North. Those two places would be the closest things to safe havens, but everything between the Neck and the Red Mountains would almost certainly be overrun. The Dothraki wouldn't need to assault the keeps, they would simply wait for their stores to run out and let them starve to death. Or they could be even more like the Huns and learn siegecraft to bring the walls down. That seems unlikely but still possible. So could they conquer the continent? Most of it, yes. But I think they would find it hard to adjust to the climate, and they would have to split their force into several khalasars to maintain control over the land. Not to mention that they are extremely religious, and it would be hard for them to give up the pilgrimages to Vaes Dothrak. I think that after a few years they would sail back to Essos, where they can live more easily according to their traditions. It would be a short lived conquering, but they could certainly do it.

Answer 11

Against a united Westeros? No. First they have no navy to speak off while Westeros has the Iron islands which are known for being very good in naval combat and is large, the Redwyne fleet which is good and large too so even establishing a beach head (look at D-day where the allies had a huge advantage in just about everything air/sea/land wise while the Germans were pretty much done (ok, they did have some great planes/tanks/veteran soldiers but their numbers were low, fuel was hard to get, the tanks suffered greatly from the lack of high quality steel (lack of the metals needed for making good steel) and their jet engines had the same lack of materials thing going against them) and had old men or young boys serving in most units + the bulk of everything the Germans had was on the eastern front + Hitler being Hitler gimped his generals.... and despite all that it wasn't a walk in the park for the allies and the Dothraki don't have a superior navy and a huge numerical advantage (I assume the dragons aren't a part of this so no air support either)) is going to be hard. And even if they manage to land they are still vastly outnumbered and not a clearly superior army (they might be slightly better while on their horses but it's far from certain due to the whole armor thing) that makes that not matter. But this being Westeros means that the united part isn't happening since they love killing each other instead...