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I think it's clear that Elsa doesn't intentionally unleash an unseasonal winter on her kingdom. Once she finds out that this is happened, she is horrified, tries vainly to think of a way to stop it, and finally attempts to get away from Arendelle altogether hoping the winter will go with her.

However her song on the mountain reveals a certain amount of frustration and possibly resentment. She expects hostility and rejection from everyone, but it doesn't bother her anyway. She will hold their reactions in contempt.

Out of universe this is because the song was intended to be a villain song, explaining how and why she wasn't going to be bound anymore by petty restrictions like not retaliating with magical snow-blasts to people calling her names, etc. In universe we can say she had reasons to not feel positive toward the society she was running away from, and her song reflects those feelings at that point in time, but not necessarily anything that could be called deliberate ill will.

So: Is it likely that the July winter storm was connected with Elsa's possible negative feelings toward Arendelle, which she may not have been fully aware of at the time? Or was it entirely random and not directed at any specific place or people, whether consciously or unconsciously?

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Elsa isn't consciously causing the winter in Arendelle. It comes as a result of her panic and wild flight up into the mountains as well as the sudden release of the powers she's been bottling up for years.

The crowd panicked. A swirl of cold air traveled through Arendelle as Elsa ran along the streets, leaving ice and snow in her wake.

Anna watched from the castle gates. “Elsa!” she called. “Wait, please!” She rushed from the castle and ran after Elsa. Hans trailed behind her. “Elsa!” Anna cried desperately.

Elsa looked over her shoulder as she neared the water. When she turned, her foot touched the lapping waves—and the water in the fjord immediately froze. She took another cautious step…and another sheet of ice bloomed under her foot.

Frozen: The Junior Novel

Elsa doesn't hold any ill will toward Arendelle (quite the opposite), nor does she use her powers to "curse" the city. Her primary concern is not hurting anyone inadvertently, like she did with Anna. The trapped feelings she describes are her largely self-imposed strictures although it should be noted there's a certain element of worry that if she hurts someone, the town will think that she did it on purpose and shun her.

Elsa trudged up the steep North Mountain. Ever since she was a child, she had been taught to conceal her powers. Now that was all over. She felt sad and worried as she gazed back at Arendelle far below. She knew no one in Arendelle would ever see her in the same way again.

But a tiny part of her also felt relieved. Her magic had been a hard secret to keep, and she didn’t have to hide it anymore. Being alone was easier, too. She didn’t have to worry about hurting anyone.

As she continued up the mountain, her steps actually became a little lighter. Now that everyone knew what she was capable of, she was free to be herself!

With a wave of her hand, Elsa started to experiment with her magic. Snow and ice whirled around her as she created snowmen and icy patterns in the air. The farther she got from Arendelle, the more confident she felt. As she took each step, her ability to draw forth ice and cold grew stronger and more powerful.

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